Could 2015 be Pagano's final year with Colts?

Chuck Pagano will be the coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2015.

Whether he is in 2016 remains to be seen.

The Colts are not expected to negotiate a contract extension for their coach before the coming season begins, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Pagano is entering the final year of the four-year deal he signed before the 2012 season.

All of which adds another layer to an already highly-anticipated 2015 campaign in Indianapolis. The Colts' ambitions are obvious. A team that came one game shy of the Super Bowl last season, the Colts added veteran (and high-priced) pieces such as Frank Gore, Andre Johnson and Trent Cole to get them over the hump.

Pagano's job is to make sure they get there.

Which is why something Pagano said this past week in Arizona at the NFL owner's meetings stands as particularly telling. Of the team's second successive playoff beatdown in New England, Pagano was asked about stopping a Patriots' rushing attack that has utterly pulverized the Colts during his tenure.

"It's our Achilles heel right now," he said. "We either get it fixed or it will be somebody else getting it fixed."

Call it Mission No. 1 for this team — and Pagano — heading into this season.

This news doesn't mean a Super Bowl trophy is the only way Pagano keeps his job. But a season that falls short of expectations, or even worse — another disappointing playoff exit in Foxborough — could call into question his future with the team.

It's the NFL, after all. It's life as the head coach of a team with lofty aspirations.

By most measures, Pagano's enjoyed a successful stint in Indianapolis since taking over for Jim Caldwell three years ago: After inheriting a team that was essentially rebuilt from the ground up, he's guided the Colts to three consecutive 11-win seasons, the last two of which have netted AFC South titles. The Colts have also advanced one round further in the playoffs in each of his three years, this past season punctuated by a divisional round upset in Denver over Peyton Manning's Broncos.

General manager Ryan Grigson also signed a four-year deal after landing in Indianapolis in 2012; it is unknown if Grigson's contract has been extended. He was named the NFL's Executive of the Year in 2012, his first as a general manager.

Pagano's body of work, though, is largely based on the last two seasons. He missed nine games during the 2012 season while battling cancer. Bruce Arians stepped in as interim coach, and after a surprising 11 win-season and a playoff berth, Arians earned the NFL's Coach of the Year award that year. Pagano was second.

But the last two seasons, after Arians moved on to Arizona, have ended in Foxborough, and ended ugly. Another oddity during Pagano's tenure has been the occurrence of lopsided losses that seem to defy explanation for a team that fancies itself a Super Bowl contender.

Examples: In the middle of the 2013 season, the Colts were pounded 38-8 by the lowly Rams at home. Two weeks later, in Arizona, the Colts fell 40-11.

This past year, Pagano's defense yielded 51 points and 639 total yards (the most by an NFL team in a game last season) to the Steelers in a Week 8 loss in Pittsburgh. Then they fell 42-7 in a Week 16 game in Dallas. Most alarming, though, is their inability to compete with New England: In two games last season vs. the Patriots, the Colts were outscored 87-27.

Owner Jim Irsay offered his thoughts on the issue last week.

"It was a great season, two playoff wins, one on the road, being big underdogs," Irsay said. "And at the same time, the two Patriots games, the Cowboys game, the Steelers game, left us concerned just about the consistency and really be able to able to get to the top, and win the Super Bowl, and finish it off. We've tried to improve the roster. It's far from a go-for-broke situation. We are very cautious with our (salary) cap. We have key players that we really want to retain over the next two years."

Even while Irsay is resisting calling this a "go-for-broke" season, it undoubtedly is an important one for Pagano. The fact that Colts aren't willing to commit to him long-term before the year begins tells us that.

Call Star reporter Zak Keefer at (317) 444-6134 and follow him on Twitter: @zkeefer.