Tully: Is Mike Pence up to saving his political career?

In 2012, before all of the mistakes and controversies, and while his own party’s presidential nominee was winning the state by more than 10 percentage points, Gov. Mike Pence won a squeaker of an election with only 49.6 percent of the vote.

That modest figure has been a headache for Pence ever since, something his critics have tossed at him at every opportunity. The lack of political muscle, and certainly a mandate, helped explain why Statehouse Republicans were inclined to rough up his first-year agenda.

So even as Pence’s name came up frequently, until recently, in conversations about potential Republican presidential candidates, it was clear from the start that he had work to do at home. That’s what happens when you win an election with less than half of the vote.

Twenty-nine months after his election, does anyone think Pence has added many voters to his camp? Certainly not. And that’s a serious problem for an incumbent who didn’t have many votes to play with in the first place, and who is now well into the second half of his first term.

Polls are snapshots in time. And the coming months will tell whether Pence’s poor showing in a poll released Thursday by Howey Politics Indiana locks in for the long term. The good news for Pence, and this might be the only good news for him, is that the next election is still more than 18 months away.

But the damage that has been done to his political fortunes is real and deep. And it’s unclear whether he is up to doing what it will take to get out of the hole he dug for himself. In the past, he has shown an ability to learn from his political mistakes. But in recent months he has stumbled badly in the midst of each crisis, often making things worse with his responses.

So let’s look at some aspects of the political crisis that Pence faces as he prepares to announce whether he will seek a second term.

•There is dissatisfaction within the GOP ranks. My inbox has been flooded for weeks by disappointed Republicans from across the state. Many prominent members of the GOP, including some with ties to former Gov. Mitch Daniels, are talking about the possibility of supporting a primary challenger. Several people close to Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard say he is hearing daily from backers eager to see him run for governor, and some top Republicans even dream of a comeback by Daniels.

Any serious primary challenge would be a crushing blow for Pence, who in 2012 had the backing of a unified Republican Party. He will need that even more in 2016, but it’s looking less likely every day. Meantime, in the wake of the religious freedom law fiasco, Pence has serious fence-mending to do within the business community, which has been a critical component to his party’s success.

•The Indianapolis suburbs. Republicans win big in the counties surrounding Indianapolis, offsetting losses in population centers such as Lake County. But the party has cost itself votes of late in many of these counties when it has veered too far to the right on social issues. The Republican nominee in 2016 will win those counties. But the margin is critical.

Pence did not perform nearly as well as Daniels in those counties, particularly those dominated by business and fiscal conservatives. But he did outperform U.S. Senate nominee Richard Mourdock, who in 2012 served as the poster candidate for the religious right. Pence is now the man on that poster.

•Teachers. In 2012, the immense power of a mobilized and angry education community was aimed at Education Superintendent Tony Bennett. It is now aimed squarely at Pence, even more so now that he and the GOP-controlled legislature have pushed legislation that could reduce Superintendent Glenda Ritz’s power. There is likely no way for Pence to win over this group, but why he chose to make the relationship worse with a petty piece of legislation this session boggles the mind.

•Younger voters. Pence’s support of the religious freedom bill, and his close association with lobbyists who said it would allow businesses to discriminate against gay customers, mobilized younger Hoosiers statewide like nothing else has since President Obama’s 2008 campaign. It’s hard to see how Pence mitigates the damage that has been done with such voters, and that will cost him. When younger Indiana voters are mobilized, Democrats benefit greatly.

•Marion County. If Joe Hogsett wins his campaign for mayor, Democrats will enjoy a huge fundraising and voter-turnout boost heading into next year’s elections. This is a county that will still support Republicans — Mitch Daniels and Greg Ballard, for instance — but not those who lead with socially conservative agendas. Pence lost the county in 2012 but not as badly as Mourdock. If Democrats can pick up even more votes here in 2016, and they likely will, Pence’s path to victory narrows significantly.

The bottom line: Pence’s political career is in peril. The question is, is he up to the job of saving it? And, if so, where does he start?

You can reach me at matthew.tully@indystar.com or at Twitter.com/matthewltully.