COLLEGE

Debate: Who will be better next year, Purdue or IU?

Insiders Zach Osterman, Nathan Baird disagree on which team will be stronger in 2015-16

Zach Osterman and Nathan Baird
zach.osterman@indystar.com
The return of Yogi Ferrell and A.J. Hammons for their senior seasons has raised expectations at IU and Purdue, respectively.

With A.J. Hammons returning to Purdue for his senior season and Yogi Ferrell recently announcing the same decision at Indiana, both of the state's Big Ten schools figure to fare well in 2015-16. Will the Boilermakers or Hoosiers have the better season? Beat writers Zach Osterman and Nathan Baird weigh in.

INDIANA

This argument comes down to weakness vs. need.

Under Tom Crean, Indiana has consistently (absent one ugly season) built high-powered and efficient offenses over the last four years. And Matt Painter's Purdue teams have always been so tough defensively.

Now both sides must address a glaring hole in the offseason — IU on defense and Purdue at point guard — and whichever one does so more effectively, probably finishes higher.

The argument for IU is manifold:

First, there's no meaningful attrition from this team. Several Hoosiers, including Troy Williams, James Blackmon Jr. and Emmitt Holt, must improve defensively, but it stands to reason they will, while Yogi Ferrell, Robert Johnson and Hanner Mosquera-Perea will only become more seasoned.

Second, what Indiana adds would only appear to help at that end. Thomas Bryant might not be an elite shot blocker, but he's a long-armed presence inside and the kind of scrappy rebounder Indiana didn't have last season (and make no mistake, rebounding is a huge part of defense). It's tough to say whether Juwan Morgan or OG Anunoby are college-ready yet, but if they are — or if Devin Davis returns to action — then Indiana gets another boost.

Troy Williams' development will be a key factor for IU's growth in 2015.

And third, the Hoosiers shouldn't have to be so creative defensively this season, because there won't be so many weaknesses to mask. At times last winter, Indiana had to rely on a smoke-and-mirrors approach, shifting defenses mid-possession. The Hoosiers sometimes confused themselves as much as opponents. Getting back to basics ought to make defending easier, and therefore more effective.

In terms of personnel, Indiana added what it needed (a potentially elite post presence), while Purdue doesn't have an obvious course of action in replacing Jon Octeus.

The Boilermakers hit the jackpot with their grad transfer point guard a season ago. Can lightning strike twice at the same spot on the floor?

I say no. I say the Hoosiers are better equipped for next season — though both teams are very good, probably top-four in the league talented — and they will finish higher.

— Zach Osterman

PURDUE

Indiana answered its biggest offseason need by bringing in 6-10 McDonald's All American Thomas Bryant.

Purdue's biggest offseason need remains unaddressed.

The Boilermakers are working every angle in search of a fifth-year transfer to replace Jon Octeus. Even if it finds one, there's no assurance he fills Octeus' shoes as distributor, defender, leader and opportunistic scorer.

Could the point guard situation ultimately hold Purdue back from its potential? Possibly, but considering its other strengths, not likely.

Purdue boasts the top two contenders for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Rapheal Davis won the award this past season as a versatile shut-down presence on the perimeter. Hammons, expected to lead the league in blocked shots for a fourth straight season, remains the Big Ten's most intimidating defensive post presence.

Assuming continued improvement from Kendall Stephens, Vince Edwards, Dakota Mathias and others, Purdue's aggressive man-to-man defense can contend with any opponent.

Regardless of who is running the point, the Boilermakers are poised to take a step forward offensively as well.

The Big Ten's reigning Defensive Player of the Year: Rapheal Davis.

Hammons and 7-foot-2, 300-pound Isaac Haas won't be easier to deal with inside after another year of experience and development. If that growth includes cutting down on turnovers and straightening up on free throws, opponents will more than ever be forced to focus on the post for 40 minutes a night.

Expect the Boilermakers to take better advantage of that from outside. Stephens, Mathias, Edwards and P.J Thompson all struggled with 3-point consistency in Big Ten play. Their track records suggest a bounce-back is likely.

Add Davis' emergence as a perimeter threat and incoming freshman Ryan Cline's shooting ability, and Purdue could be as lethal outside as any team in the league.

There doesn't seem to be a big separation between these teams, and the meeting at Assembly Hall could ultimately decide this question. But until the Hoosiers prove they can defend at Purdue's level, the Boilermakers are the better bet for a high finish.

— Nathan Baird