Insider: Season opener do or die for Purdue

• Purdue at Marshall%2C 3 p.m.%2C Sunday%2C FS1

You didn't expect the Boilermakers to be happy, did you?

Preseason college football magazines and a group of media members who cover the Big Ten Conference believe Purdue is headed for a last-place finish in the league.

At Big Ten media day last month in Chicago, cornerback Frankie Williams said the predictions "pissed us off."

What has the program accomplished the past two years to warrant a higher spot? Coach Darrell Hazell's first two seasons have brought a 4-20 record. Only three of those wins were against Football Bowl Subdivision programs, and the Boilermakers haven't won a conference home game since 2012.

If the players truly want to change the narrative, their opportunity beckons at 3 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, at Marshall.

By their own accounts, the offseason workouts were the hardest the players can remember. They've re-shaped their bodies so they look more like Big Ten players. Negativity in the locker room is gone. Accountability is up. The attitude and approach have improved. There's more experience and talent.

They're the ones living it every day. They're the ones sweating, lifting weights and adding a combined 420 pounds of lean muscle to the roster in an effort to move this program out of the Big Ten basement.

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Can it happen? No one really knows.

The program appears to be in a better place, but the proof will come on game days.

"That's the most important part. That's all I care about, personally," offensive lineman Jason King said. "I'm a guy — and most guys around here are the same way — that just cares about the W's at this point. It's time to make it happen."

We've watched all the practices leading up to the opener at Marshall and dissected position battles — including the quarterback race numerous times.

It's easy to come away impressed at times, but remember, it's Purdue vs. Purdue in these scrimmages. Until the Boilermakers lineup against the Thundering Herd, the unknowns are plentiful.

This much is certain: Purdue can't afford to lose the opener if it has visions of doubling its win total of three from a year ago. There's a path — a narrow one — to reach a bowl game, but a loss in the first game would nearly kill that chance.

There will be no room to recover.

The schedule is challenging. Virginia Tech, which blocks kicks in its sleep, and Bowling Green's high-powered offense visit Ross-Ade Stadium. Worth noting: Purdue is 4-4 against Mid-American Conference schools since 2009.

October offers little relief with Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

November presents an opportunity but only if the Boilermakers haven't suffered key injuries and they're not adjusting to another midseason quarterback change. Getting a chance to play meaningful games in the final month is the goal, but an 0-1 hole won't be the way to start.

It's hard to remember a more important game in the recent history of the program.

A majority of the fan base is taking a wait-and-see approach. As of Friday, just over 15,000 general public season tickets have been sold, including mini-plan packages. Students account for nearly 6,300, almost doubling last year's figure because of the new $99 Boarding Pass. Counting season tickets, mini plans and students, the overall number has surpassed last season's figure but there's still a lot of work ahead.

It will take more than a win over Marshall to begin the slow process of bringing fans back, but we know they're not coming if the Boilermakers are 0-1.

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What does this mean for Hazell? It's Year 3 and progress in the win column is coming at tortoise speed. Wins need to accumulate. Noticeable improvement was demonstrated last season, but only two more wins than 2013 were added. This is no time to go backward.

Would another disastrous season end Hazell's tenure? Unlikely. We're approaching the halfway point of Hazell's contract. Five or six wins should bring a contract extension.

Could Purdue even afford to cut loose Hazell and his staff and reinvest after just three years? Athletic director Morgan Burke asked donors to dig deep in order to dump Danny Hope and bring Hazell to West Lafayette. Are they willing to dip into their bank accounts so soon, especially when Burke is scheduled to announce major upgrades to Mollenkopf and Ross-Ade Stadium in December?

The ideal solution is a fast start and strong finish. Bookend 3-1 records in September and November. Go to a bowl game and continue to build.

But that perfect storyline doesn't have a chance to materialize if Purdue starts out 0-1.

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Purdue football game-by-game predictions

Sept. 6 at Marshall: All the focus since January has been on this game. If the Boilermakers are going to enjoy a productive season, a 1-0 start is a must. Win.

Sept. 12 vs. Indiana State: The last time the Sycamores visited Ross-Ade Stadium, Purdue needed a last-minute interception to seal the only win in 2013. Not as close as two years ago. Win.

Sept. 19 vs. Virginia Tech: One of the nation's premier coaches – Frank Beamer – brings the Hokies to West Lafayette. Known for defense and special teams, finding the end zone will be difficult for the Boilermaker offense. Loss.

Sept. 26: vs. Bowling Green: The offense better show some punch in the first three games because the Boilermakers will need points against the high-flying Falcons, who scored 30 or more eight times last season. Bowling Green, though, plays Tennessee, Maryland and Memphis before facing Purdue. Win.

Oct. 3 at Michigan State: The last two years the Boilermakers have played the Spartans tough. Michigan State is a legitimate contender to make the College Football Playoff. Loss.

Oct. 10 vs. Minnesota: The Boilermakers let this game slip away last year in Minneapolis and will have a chance to erase that memory. This is the best chance to win a game in October. Loss.

Oct. 17 at Wisconsin: Camp Randall Stadium has been a house of horrors in recent trips. Although the Badgers have a new coaching staff, they still feature a powerful rushing attack. Loss.

Oct. 31 vs. Nebraska: The Huskers have a new coach in former Oregon State boss Mike Riley, so it's unclear how the system is working at this stage of the season. The Boilermakers will be coming off a bye week. Loss.

Nov. 7 vs. Illinois: Homecoming in November? Better make it worth it for the alumni. The Boilermakers haven't won a Big Ten home game since 2012. Win.

Nov. 14 at Northwestern: Another winnable game but hard to predict the state of the team from a health standpoint. If the Boilermakers commit a boat load of turnovers like they did last year, it won't matter. Loss.

Nov. 21 at Iowa: The Hawkeyes need wins under Kirk Ferentz and they have this one circled. Loss.

Nov. 28 vs. Indiana: If Marshall is must win No. 1, this is must win No. 2 for coach Darrell Hazell. Two straight losses to the arch rival isn't sitting well. Win.

Projected 2015 record: 5-7