LoBianco: 5 reasons Pence White House bid won't happen

It will be at least two months until he announces it, but Gov. Mike Pence appears to have his sights set on a 2016 re-election bid, not a run at the White House.

Recently, Pence has ramped up his presence inside the Indiana Statehouse, while downplaying his trips outside the state. And he has become more hands-on around the Statehouse, especially after the criticism and even ridicule hurled at him over the proposed then scrapped "JustIN" state news site.

Perhaps most notable was the pair of news conferences Pence called to address problems with the ISTEP test. (Pence often goes months at a time without holding media availabilities.)

Even Pence's mother has suggested he should wait until 2020 to seek the White House.

Pence and his tight-knit circle of advisers have kept their 2016 plans closely guarded. Pence spokesman Robert Vane would not give any clues last week, saying only that the governor plans to make his 2016 announcement sometime after April.

What's been clear throughout his two years as governor is that Pence is highly regarded by the conservative establishment in Washington, based on the strength of relations he developed over 12 years there and a solid base of support among conservatives nationwide.

But five key factors outside Pence's control appear to have effectively closed the window on a 2016 Pence White House bid:

1. When former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced his likely run in December, the Republican field quickly began taking shape, with top donors and fundraisers lining up behind Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other clear contenders. Bush's move made it almost impossible for prospective candidates such as Pence and many others to keep waiting in the wings. But Pence never stepped forward, sticking to a timetable of waiting until the spring.

2. Pence had a prime speaking spot Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, a launchpad for many prospective candidates. But he wasn't on the CPAC straw poll. The poll is considered a key indicator of whom the conservative base considers a serious contender for the White House.

3. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has emerged as the "Midwestern conservative governor" candidate. It's not an exclusive slot, but Walker has done something else very important: begun hiring campaign staff. The only campaign staff Pence has hired is for his 2016 governor's race. Walker's clear moves to run for president and his use of the Mitch Daniels playbook (fighting labor unions) have given him very strong footing in the 2016 field.

4. Would-be Pence supporters are decamping for other candidates: Conservative fundraiser and longtime Republican National Committee member Jim Bopp, a Terre Haute lawyer, announced recently that he would raise funds for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Indiana's bank of top-dollar Republican fundraisers is not by any means of a single mind on Republican candidates, but when then-Gov. Mitch Daniels was considering a White House bid four years ago, they were prepared to join hands for the Indiana candidate.

5. Pence's mishandling of "JustIN," a proposed state-run news service that stirred controversy, allowed what should have been his greatest policy achievement (expansion of Medicaid using a state-run alternative) to be overshadowed. And perhaps worse, it exposed flaws in his administration that left some Washington operatives questioning whether the Pence Team could handle a White House bid.

Pence will continue to be a "potential presidential candidate" until he says otherwise, but all signs point to him being an actual gubernatorial candidate.

The big question now is which Democrat he will face in 2016.

Call Star reporter Tom LoBianco at (317) 444-7136. Follow him on Twitter:@tomlobianco.