Cheaper gas, airfares don't bring boost in Thanksgiving travelers

Despite gas prices more than a dollar a gallon cheaper than they were a year ago and airfares 10 percent lower, the number of Thanksgiving travelers in Indiana and nationwide is not expected to surge.

Slightly more Hoosiers this year will take to the roads. Fewer plan to fly. Nationwide, a slight increase is expected in air travel, and even though the number of Americans who will travel 50 miles or more by car this Thanksgiving is forecast to reach an eight-year high, the increase is less than 1 percent, according to AAA Hoosier Motor Club.

"On Thanksgiving people thumb their noses at gas prices either way," Hoosier Motor Club spokesman Greg Seiter said. "We find most people plan their trips well in advance and aren't going to alter them just because gas swings a few cents."

AAApredicts 941,231 people in Indiana will drive at least 50 miles to celebrate Turkey Day, just a slight increase from 928,909 motorists a year ago. The number who plan to fly is expected to decrease. AAA expects  78,967 Hoosiers to fly compared with 79,066 last year.

The motor club measures the Thanksgiving travel period from Wednesday to Sunday. Thursday is usually the least-traveled travel day and Sunday the busiest.

The stagnant travel forecast comes despite a sharp drop in gas prices this year. The Indiana average price for a gallon of unleaded gas is 1.08 cents cheaper than a year ago, $1.82 compared with $2.90. On Monday, several gas stations in Indianapolis were selling a gallon of unleaded for as low as $1.63 gallon, according to gasbuddy.com, and the website's analysts predicted an average national price of $1.99 a gallon on Thanksgiving Day, which would be the lowest gas price since 2009 and the lowest Thanksgiving price since 2004.

Purdue University energy economist Wally Tyner echoed Seiter's opinion, saying lower gas prices usually don't motivate enough people to change their travel plans.

“It might move a few people on the margins, but what we’ve learned is that short term responses to price change is very small,” Tyner said.  Plus, Tyner said, holiday travel plans are often steeped in tradition, with families making the same visits year after year.

“Thanksgiving and Christmas are a huge deal,” Tyner said.

AAA said it expected 41.9 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more by car this Thanksgiving, the most since 2007 and a 0.7 percent increase from a year ago.

The lower fuel costs have helped drive down airline ticket prices, AAA reported. About 3.6 million Americans should be flying to their holiday destinations, a 0.1 percent increase from last Thanksgiving, online travel site Orbitz predicts.

AAA's Leisure Travel Index projected an average round-trip price of $169 across the top 40 domestic flight routes. Orbitz said the average round trip to the 10 most popular destinations was $389.

The three most popular cities for travel this year, according to Orbitz, are Chicago, with flights 17 percent cheaper than last year; Orlando, Fla., with flights 10 percent cheaper; and Los Angeles, with 8 percent cheaper flights.

Indianapolis International Airport spokesman Jeff Dutton said the number of seats available on outbound flights Sunday are 27 percent higher and 14 percent higher on Monday.

Transportation Security Administration spokesman Mark Howell declined to say whether passenger screenings would be tightened because of the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and the explosion the Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 over the Sinai Peninsula in Eygpt. on Oct. 31. Russia said the plane, carrying 227 passengers and crew, was downed by a bomb on board.

Howell said passengers should arrive two hours before their departures and could expect to see bomb-sniffing dogs, which are regularly assigned to the airport. Jeh Johnson, the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, said after the Paris attacks that there had been no credible threats to the United States.

At a cyber security conference Thursday in Arlington, Virginia, Johnson said DHS had taken a number of steps to improve screening passengers  on international flights into the United States and said passengers here shouldn't be cowed by the recent attacks.

"Particularly as we approach the holiday season, we continue to encourage the public to travel, attend public events, and freely associate, but remain vigilant and aware," he said.

Call Star reporter John Tuohy at 317 444-6418 and follow on Twitter @john_tuohy.

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