COLTS

How can the Colts still make the playoffs?

Nat Newell
nat.newell@indystar.com
Chuck Pagano talks with players after a long punt return for Indianapolis, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015.

Nine games need to go the Indianapolis Colts’ way for the team to make the playoffs. Here is the list:

>>Colts beat Tennessee.

>>Jacksonville beats Houston.

>>Miami beats New England.

>>Denver beats San Diego.

>>Atlanta beats New Orleans.

>>Baltimore beats Cincinnati.

>>Buffalo beats the New York Jets.

>>Oakland beats Kansas City.

>>Pittsburgh beats Cleveland.

The Colts have to have nine games go there way to make the playoffs.

The Colts need to win and Houston needs to lose to cause a tie at 8-8 atop the AFC South. The other six games atop the list would allow the Colts to tie Houston in strength of victory, sending it to strength of schedule.

Fourteen of Houston's and Indianapolis' 16 games are the same, meaning it comes down to Denver and Pittsburgh for the Colts, Kansas City and Cincinnati for Houston. Since Cincinnati has to lose to Denver and Baltimore for this scenario to come into play, Houston's strength of schedule would be 21-10, with Kansas City facing Oakland. Indianapolis' is 20-10 with Denver facing San Diego and Pittsburgh playing at Cleveland. So Kansas City needs to lose and Denver and Pittsburgh need to win to give the Colts the edge.

If the Colts and Texans are tied in strength of schedule, it goes to best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Prior to Monday's game, Houston has the edge 18-25.

How difficult would it be for the Colts to make up that edge? This is a moving target for 32 teams, of course, but for Houston to move down two places in each category it would have to lose 72-10. The Colts would have to win 31-16 to move up two places in each. There are, of course, other combinations that would cause the needed shift.