Big speech looms as Pence ponders 2016 options

Gov. Mike Pence is well-known for his ability to stay on message and hew to a careful script, but Tuesday will test whether he can elevate that message and wow an audience of national Republican bigwigs and activists eyeing potential White House candidates.

Pence is scheduled to deliver his third State of the State address Tuesday evening. On the surface, the speech is a venue for the governor (any governor, frankly) to lay out his vision for the coming year and bask in the accomplishments of prior years. But 2015 is an important speech for Pence to shine if he wants to check off the box next to "executive experience" for a possible White House run.

Pence has said he will not announce his plans until after the 2015 session of the Indiana General Assembly wraps up in April. But the Republican primary field is quickly taking shape -- even though no candidate has formally announced his or her entry -- with news in the past few weeks that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are seriously exploring runs.

If Pence wants to trade on the national attention he has garnered recently, Republican pollster Christine Matthews suggested he focus on his proposed alternative to expanding Medicaid, the Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0. The proposal showcases how governors can be effective alternatives to Washington, she said, something that plays well with Republican audiences.

"That's exactly the kind of model that Republican presidential candidates love to talk about and Republican primary audiences love to hear about," Matthews said.

Pence has done plenty in the past year to stoke talk of his ambition for 2016. Most recently, he touted a holiday visit to Israel -- a mandatory stop for any would-be candidate. He used a previous trip abroad, to Germany, to take the unusual step of criticizing President Barack Obama for his handling of a European missile defense shield.

He also has made stops -- his first as governor -- in Iowa and New Hampshire in the past year, but as the Des Moines Register pointed out, his visits have paled in comparison to other prospective candidates.

Pence also has met with top-dollar national donors in New York and Florida. And, if he were to run, he would have strong ties to the Koch brothers through top staff who worked with him during his time in Congress.

Tuesday's speech, Matthews noted, may give Pence the chance to step out of the shadow of another Indiana governor who considered running for the White House: Mitch Daniels.

It was this same time almost exactly four years ago that national Republicans were clamoring for Daniels to enter the race. His 2011 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) won accolades from establishment Republicans in Washington, and attention quickly turned to whether his family would let him run.

A new book from one of Daniels' close friends, former PR honcho Don Cogman, detailed the incredible amount of work that went into building up the would-be Daniels presidential campaign behind the scenes. By this point in the 2012 election cycle, they were almost ready to pull the trigger on the campaign.

Pence and his supporters clearly have been making some similar moves toward considering a run for the White House. But it's still unclear whether he will seek the White House or re-election as governor.

(Legislation that would have let him seek both offices was effectively killed last week by legislative leaders, who called it a bad idea.)

Republican operative Pete Seat, a former Indiana Republican Party spokesman, said the speech is a way for Pence to cash in on the additional attention from his national flirtations -- whichever office he seeks in 2016.

"For those people who have heard Pence may run but don't know a lot about him, this is a good opportunity for him to introduce himself," Seat said. "They can say, 'I've heard about this guy, I've heard he's appealing.' Now here's some specific bullet points."

Call Star reporter Tom LoBianco at (317) 444-7136. Follow him on Twitter: @tomlobianco.

The Indianapolis Star will provide live coverage of Pence's State of the State speech Tuesday. As part of the coverage, a panel of political experts will dissect his performance Tuesday night. Follow along on The Star website and Twitter and join the conversation by tweeting to the hashtag #PenceSOTS.