Doyel: Politics plays big role in today's Hall of Fame voting

PHOENIX – If Bill Polian makes it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this weekend, it won't be for the Super Bowl he won in 2006 with the Colts. It won't be for the four consecutive Super Bowl appearances he made from 1990-93 with the Buffalo Bills.

If Polian makes it into Canton this week, it'll be because of ESPN's Sal Paolantonio.

How is this possible? I'll get there. But this story is bigger than Polian, bigger than Marvin Harrison and Tony Dungy – the other Colts legends up for enshrinement – and smaller, sadly, than the actual football.

This story is about politics. It's about the people who will convene Saturday in Phoenix, 46 members of the media who will make or break the legacies of the giants they have covered. This story is about the human element, the humanity of others that is the final hurdle between Polian, Harrison and Dungy – and NFL immortality.

It starts with Polian, the ex-Colt most likely to make it this week – but not, if you can believe it, the most likely of the three Colts finalists to make it some day. If none of the Colts makes it this week, and only one of them makes it ever? It will be Harrison. Make sense? No?

Good. You're paying attention.

Let's start with Polian, on the ballot as a contributor – considered apart from players and coaches -- and whose Hall of Fame credentials are impeccable but for one thing: He might not be retired. Polian had been in talks recently with the Buffalo Bills about advising the front office, then overseeing it. Talks fell apart after coach Doug Marrone resigned, but the timing hurt Polian with some Hall of Fame voters.

"The Hall is the final line you cross, your final gift as you head out the door," one voter told me. "That's why it took Bill Parcells so long (before his enshrinement in 2013), because we were never sure he was retired. Now it's the same with Polian."

All is not lost, however. Every voter I spoke with told me Polian will make it this week if the electorate is convinced he is retired for good. Convincing them will fall to his presenter, ESPN's Paolantonio – each finalist's candidacy is presented to voters by one person – who will talk to Polian before making that presentation.

"If Polian convinces Sal he's retired – and if Sal convinces us – Polian's a slam dunk," a voter told me.

So that's Polian. Harrison? Another interesting call, also having less to do with achievement and more with peripheral issues. Standing in Harrison's way isn't a superior receiver, but a more sympathetic one: Tim Brown.

This is Brown's sixth year on the ballot, stuck behind eventual Hall of Famers Cris Carter (2013) and Andre Reed (2014). This is the year, voters told me, for Brown. Even if he's an inferior candidate to Marvin Harrison.

And that's not coming from me. That's coming from the voters, all of whom are aware Harrison has more career catches (1,102 to 1,094 for Brown) and touchdowns (128 to 100) in 65 fewer career games. If this were a call between Harrison and Brown purely as candidates, it would be no call. Brown never made the Associated Press All-Pro team. Harrison made it three times. Brown had one season with 100 catches. Harrison did it four times, including an NFL-record 143 catches in 2002. Harrison has more Super Bowls (one) than Brown (zero), and led the NFL in catches, touchdowns or receiving yards five times, compared to one such season for Brown.

But the number that matters most here is six, the number of years Brown has been on the ballot (compared to two years for Harrison). That's what voters told me, and they asked not to be identified. All of them predict just one receiver will be enshrined this year. A sampling of what they said:

"(Harrison) is the best wide receiver on the ballot," said one, "but is he going to jump to the start of the queue?"

"You can argue Harrison's better, but (Brown) has been in line a long time – and Brown's a Hall of Famer," said another. "This is his time."

"(Harrison) is getting in. But probably not this year," said another. "There's talk of evening things up between both sides of the ball. We've been putting in a lot of offensive players. This year you might see some more defensive guys."

Five modern-day candidates can – voters say, will – be elected. Linebacker Junior Seau is a lock, the only guarantee on the list, they say. Other serious candidates: defensive ends Charles Haley and Kevin Greene, running back Jerome Bettis, guard Will Shields, tackle Orlando Pace, receivers Tim Brown and Marvin Harrison, and …

Tony Dungy.

Dungy's candidacy is the trickiest of the bunch, a smorgasbord of achievement (.668 winning percentage, eighth all-time among coaches with at least 10 seasons), pioneering (first African-American coach to win a Super Bowl) and leadership (well known to all). Is any of that enough? Is all of it? It would be, voters say, if coaches were considered in the contributor category – competing against other coaches and executives, not against players who tend to make more of a visceral impact.

What voters are telling me will happen: Polian gets in this year. Harrison makes it in 2016.

And Dungy? They say yes. They say no. They say now. They say never.

Football just shouldn't be this difficult.

Find Star columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter at @GreggDoyelStar or atwww.facebook.com/gregg.doyel