How do Boilers fare in latest bracketology, bubble watch?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how Purdue's players were trying to stay focused despite the NCAA tournament talk picking up.

Boilermakers coach Matt Painter admitted on his radio show Monday night that there's no way to escape the speculation simply because it's so prevalent. "If you don't know about it, you're out in left field," Painter said.

Purdue sophomore Kendall Stephens said the same earlier today, but said players can't be distracted by the in-one-day, out-the-next scenarios.

The only thing that would significantly affect Purdue's bubble status this week would be the two extremes: winning out at Michigan State on Wednesday and at home against Illinois on Sunday might clinch an NCAA berth. Losing both would probably force the Boilermakers to win multiple Big Ten tournament games to improve their bid.

BIG TEEN SEED WATCH

Purdue is currently in third place at 11-5, one game ahead of Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State.

The Boilermakers can't finish second after Maryland beat Rutgers on Tuesday. Even if the Terrapins lose at Nebraska and Purdue wins out, Maryland holds the tiebreaker by beating Purdue.

If Purdue beats Michigan State it ensures a top-four finish and a double-bye. The Boilermakers would hold tiebreakers against both Iowa and the Spartans. (It would lose the third-place tiebreaker to Ohio State if it finishes with the same record, since OSU beat Maryland.)

If Purdue beats Michigan State and Illinois it is locked into third place.

If Purdue loses at Michigan State and beats Illinois, it would need an MSU loss at Indiana or an Ohio State loss at Penn State or vs. Wisconsin to keep a top-four spot.

If Purdue loses to both Michigan State and Illinois, it needs help. Ohio State would need to lose twice and Iowa once.

PURDUE'S NCAA RESUME

This fluctuates almost daily, depending on which Big Ten Conference team knocks off another. Iowa beating Indiana hurt Purdue because the Boilermakers have two wins over IU and just one over the Hawkeyes.

Purdue RPI: 59

Top 50 RPI wins — 5: Ohio State (36), BYU (37), Indiana X 2 (46), Iowa (47)

Sub-100 RPI losses — 2: vs Gardner-Webb (156), vs North Florida (172)

BRACKETOLOGY

Here's where three bracket analysts had the Boilermakers as of Tuesday:

SHELBY MAST — www.bracketwag.com

Purdue: No. 11 seed in West Regional vs. 6 VCU (in Louisville)

Of note: VCU ended the 2010-11 Purdue season with a round of 32 victory en route to the Final Four.

Bubble thoughts: BYU, Illinois and Kansas State are among the teams Mast considered but left out of his most recent update.

JOE LUNARDI — ESPN bracketology

Purdue: Last four in, playing UCLA at Dayton for 11 seed spot in West Region. Winner vs. 6 SMU.

Of note: Obvious Purdue/UCLA ties with John Wooden, 1969 title game, etc.

Bubble thoughts: Lunardi picks Indiana and N.C. State among his last four teams to get slotted into the round of 64. (Purdue is 3-0 against them.) He also has Illinois on the outside. Boilermakers and Illini will have a lot riding on Saturday's game.

JERRY PALM — CBS Sports bracketology

Purdue: No. 10 seed in West Regional vs. 7 St. John's (in Portland)

Of note: I would be one of about 10,000 ink-stained wretches writing about the Keady/Lavin/St. John's connection.

Bubble thoughts: Illinois and BYU make Palm's "last four in."

OTHER BUBBLE TEAMS (with RPI and this week's games)

*Games vs other bubble teams noted with (B); Games with top 50 RPI opponents in ().

Boise State (28 RPI) — Wed., at San Jose State; Sat., vs. Fresno State. Balancing three top 50 wins with three clunkers. Wins this week won't help much.

BYU (37) — Sat., vs. Santa Clara/Loyola Marymount in WCC tournament. (Record vs. Purdue: 0-1.) Getting swept by the likes of Pepperdine set the Cougars back, but they sure picked a good time to beat Gonzaga.

Cincinnati (49) — Wed., at Tulsa (B, 33); Sun., vs. Memphis. Offset upset at SMU with head-scratchers against East Carolina and Tulane. Tonight's road trip is huge.

Colorado State (26) — Wed., at Nevada; Sat., at Utah St.. No road wins against top 100 opponents, but most analysts have the Rams IN right now.

Davidson (44) — Wed., vs. VCU (19); Sat., at Duquesne. "Good losses" and an 8-4 road mark help.

Illinois (61) — Wed., vs. Nebraska; Sat., at Purdue (B). (Record vs. Purdue: 1-0) Not many teams can boast multiple top-10 victories (Baylor, Maryland). Trip to Mackey could be decisive.

Indiana (46) — Sat., vs. Michigan State (30). (Record vs. Purdue: 0-2) Solid list of quality wins early, but the Hoosiers are fading at the wrong time.

N.C. State (54) — Sat., vs. Syracuse. (Record vs. Purdue: 0-1.) Last Saturday's loss to Boston College could haunt.

Oregon (32) — Sun., won at Stanford (B, 56); Wed., at Oregon St. Closing well: Four-game winning streak includes Utah upset.

Pittsburgh (50) — Wed., vs. Miami; Sat., at Florida State. Will Panthers come up one impressive road win short?

Stanford (56) — Wed., at Arizona State; Sat., at Arizona (7). Stumbling down the stretch, but win against the Wildcats could change everything.

Temple (40) — Thu., at East Carolina; Sat. vs. UConn. Kansas win props up otherwise iffy candidacy.

Texas (39) — Mon., won vs.Baylor (10); Sat., vs. Kansas State. Just when it seemed the Longhorns were fading out of the picture, the Baylor win provides a jolt.

Texas A&M (34) — Tue., lost at Florida; Sat., vs. Alabama. No bad losses, but sweep of LSU only notable victories.

Tulsa (33) — Wed., vs. Cincinnati (B, 49); Sun., at SMU (20). Team on this list that can help its at-large case the most this week.

UCLA (52) — Wed., vs.USC. Good strength of schedule resulted in six top-20 losses. But also faltered against mid-range competition on the road.

Xavier (42) — Sat., at Creighton. Five top-50 wins and four sub-100 losses. Probable safe.

That's 17 teams (at least) playing for 10-12 spots. And things get really interesting if someone upsets a presumptive conference champion, potentially turning a one-bid league into a two-bid league.