OPINION

Abdul: Mike Pence in strong position for 2016 win

Abdul-Hakim Shabazz

The worst thing Mike Pence could do in 2016 as far as most Democrats are concerned is run for re-election as governor.

As Democrats try to decide who is going to carry their banner, former House Speaker John Gregg, former Congressman Baron Hill and Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz have all made the short list of possible candidates. A few mayors are out there too. The problem is that should Pence run for re-election he will be a tough opponent to beat for a number of reasons.

First, Democrats may not like Pence, but a clear majority of Hoosiers think otherwise. The governor is sitting on good poll numbers as he enters his third year in office. The Bowen Center for Public Affairs 2014 Hoosier survey has Pence’s approval ratings at 62 percent. A poll by the Indiana Association of Realtors had the governor at 60 percent. Americans for Prosperity had Pence at 66 percent. And even a poll late last year by the Indiana State Teachers Association, Pence’s arch enemies, had 50 percent of Hoosiers thinking the state was on the right track. Throw that in with $3.5 million in the bank to run a campaign, and Pence is in a nice starting place.

When you look at where Indiana is today, versus early 2013, and a second bite at the apple for the governor seems like a feasible scenario. When the governor took over in 2013, Indiana’s unemployment rate was 7.9 percent. Today it’s 5.8 percent. That translates into more than 100,000 private sector jobs that have been created with Pence at the helm. And yes, I am well aware that the only jobs government creates are government jobs. However, if the chief executive officer gets blamed when job numbers go south, I believe he should get credit when the numbers improve.

In the usual areas of education and roads, Indiana isn’t doing badly either. When the debate is how much more money schools and roads should get as opposed to how much should be cut, that’s not a bad universe to be in. Pence has increased funding for public schools, and put together a responsible pre-K program so that we know what works as opposed to throwing money at anything and everything that comes along. He’s put a heavy emphasis on career and technical education so kids who don’t want to go the traditional four-year higher education route have a chance at success. And Indiana is looking to invest at least $700 million more in roads and infrastructure today than in 2013.

And all of that is before what I would argue is Pence’s biggest achievement, the HIP 2.0 expansion. You have to give the governor’s team credit for standing firm while negotiating with the federal government to expand health care to hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers while providing an alternative to traditional Medicaid expansion.

Yes, the Pence team has had its missteps. The Just IN state news distribution website rollout was not one of their finer moments. There has been some back and forth with legislative leaders that could have been avoided with better behind the scenes communication. And the governor is sometimes too cautious when speaking with the press and needs to let his hair down on occasion and relax a bit.

But it will take a lot more than that for Democrats to take him out in 2016. Yes, the 2016 elections are a long way down the road, and as we all know, anything can happen to change the political landscape. However, at 18 months out, I would much rather be the guy with millions in the bank, a 60-plus percent approval rating and most Hoosiers thinking the state is headed in the right direction, than the head of the Indiana Democratic Party.

Abdul is an attorney and the editor and publisher of IndyPolitics.Org. Email him at abdul@indypolitics.org.