Doyel: Will we find out why these Colts got paid?

ANDERSON – The money is out of the way. The money is way, way out of the way. Maybe this season we’ll see why all those Indianapolis Colts were paid all that money.

We damn sure didn’t see it last season.

Name a big-time Colt who entered training camp in 2015 hoping for a big payday, and I’ll show you a big-time Colt who underachieved: Dwayne Allen. Anthony Castonzo. T.Y. Hilton. Coby Fleener. Andrew Luck.

Could it be a coincidence? Maybe. Castonzo was telling me Wednesday it was a coincidence, and why – well, he was trying to tell me why. Not sure I understood what he was saying. More on that conversation in a moment.

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But for now, let’s do this. Let’s look at the track record of all five star Colts who entered the 2015 training camp with their contract status in question. Yes, that includes Coby Fleener, who’s not a Colt anymore. The team decided not to bring him back. Cut him loose.

Let’s absolutely look at Coby Fleener, because his underachievement in 2015 is exactly what I’m talking about. He was playing for his future here. He knew it. And he came up tiny. I mean, teensy-weensy.

In 2014 Fleener was a star, catching 51 passes for 774 yards (15.2 yards per catch) and eight touchdowns. In 2015 he was a black hole, a place where catchable balls went to die – or to be caught, only to fail to gain a first down. Fleener had 54 catches, yes, but gained just 491 yards, scored just three touchdowns, averaged just 9.1 yards per catch.

And Fleener was the Colts’ productive tight end.

Allen, tremendously effective in limited opportunities in 2014 – 29 catches, 395 yards (13.6 yards per catch), eight touchdowns – was ineffective in bizarrely limited opportunities: 16 catches, 109 yards (6.8 per catch), one touchdown.

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Don’t think a nebulous contract situation can affect an NFL player? I submit: How could it not? NBA and MLB have fully guaranteed contracts, but not the NFL, where players are so much more likely to suffer a career-ending injury. Plus there’s the concussion fear, with NFL players often retiring with their health, only to suffer debilitating – and costly – brain deterioration.

Something affected Anthony Castonzo, a left tackle on the verge of the Pro Bowl in 2014 but a disappointment in 2015. Castonzo himself notes the drop-off in his play last season, which began just three days after he received an extension.

Like Castonzo, T.Y. Hilton also received his big payday after training camp began – but before the regular season started – last year. That came after a contentious offseason in which the Colts used their No. 1 pick on receiver Phillip Dorsett, who looked like Hilton’s potential replacement, which led to this bit of sassiness from Hilton: “If they want to pay me, they’ll pay me.”

Hilton had far and away the best 2015 season of the five Colts in contract limbo, but his 69 catches, 1,124 yards and five touchdowns were well below his 2014 totals – 82 catches, 1,345 yards, seven TDs – despite playing one fewer game in 2014.

Armed with those statistics, I went to Castonzo a few hours before the Colts’ first preseason practice on Wednesday and told him my premise: Five Colts entered camp last year with a major contract question, and all five underperformed.

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Here’s how the ensuing conversation went for me. Spoiler alert: Not so well.

“It’s not really much different,” he said of having the contract out of the way. “The only thing that’s really different is how much money you have” – here he giggled – “but that doesn’t really change anything in terms of football.”

Wait a minute, I tell Castonzo. Five players. Five contract issues. Five below-average seasons. You calling that a coincidence?

“It’s a multi-variable thing going on there,” he said.

Now my hands are up, asking for help. I tell Castonzo I’m from Mississippi, and ask him: Is that what they teach biochemistry majors at Boston College, multi-variables?

“In order to run a good experiment, you can only have one variable,” he’s telling me. “If you have two, you don’t know which one is affecting it. So you can only have a single variable in any good experiment.”

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Mississippi, I tell him. Mississippi.

“There are multiple variables going on,” he says, trying again. “I’m sure one guy not playing well last year, maybe another guy couldn’t do his job as well. I’m sure that’s more of the cause-and-effect than where his mind’s at over the contract.”

Next time, I tell the Colts’ brainy left tackle, don’t try so hard to outsmart me.

“I wasn’t trying,” he says.

Ah.

But I see his point about the multi, um, well. I see his point about one player affecting another. Andrew Luck, who entered last season with the possibility of a record-setting payday, had the poorest season of his career. And he was bafflingly bad before he was injured in Week 3, completing 54.7 percent of his passes (he was at 61.7 percent in 2014) with a 58.9 passer rating (96.5 in 2014), three touchdowns and five interceptions (he had 40 TDs, 16 INT in 2014).

A subpar quarterback affects nobody more than his receiving targets, and three of the five players in question here catch the ball. That said, I’m sticking to my original assertion. Luck’s struggles don’t explain the yards-per-catch of Fleener and Allen falling off the face of the earth. Nor does it explain Castonzo being unable to protect him (or backup Matt Hasselbeck).

And it doesn’t explain Hilton disappearing late last season, failing to gain 70 yards in five of the final seven games and scoring just once in that stretch. I don’t care if the quarterback is Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck or Pat McAfee; a No. 1 receiver has to produce better than that.

Without a contract to worry about this offseason, Hilton enters camp looking better than ever, according to teammates and coach Chuck Pagano.

“Probably the best offseason he’s had,” Pagano was telling me Wednesday.

And Hilton (five years, $65 million) isn’t the only one with the money out of the way and in his pocket. Luck (six years, $140 million), Castonzo (four years, $42 million) and Allen (four years, $29.4 million) also got paid.

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A contract negotiation isn’t everything, but it’s one thing – one big thing – to have out of the way. As for the other variables that may have affected all five of those Colts a year ago? Ask Castonzo. He’s the one who turned my fine idea for a column into a science project.

Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter at@GreggDoyelStar or atwww.facebook.com/gregg.doyel.