Doyel: It’s possible we’re overreacting – but we’re not

• Colts at Broncos, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS

INDIANAPOLIS – Maybe we overreacted. That’s certainly a possibility, is it not? The Indianapolis Colts have played one game, they lost that one game, and folks near and far are sticking a fork in them. Because the Colts are done.

Maybe they, maybe we – maybe you – overreacted.

This idea comes to me courtesy of Colts left guard Jack Mewhort, but not because he accused any of us of overreacting to that 39-35 loss Sunday to the Detroit Lions. He did not. But when he was tossed a softball about how good the offensive line looked in that loss – Andrew Luck was sacked twice, but the protection overall was solid – Mewhort refused to swing.

“You can’t judge us and tell us we’re good, tell us we’re bad, based on one game,” Mewhort said. “It was a good week, but our body of work will be judged after 16 games.”

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He makes a good point. So here’s a good idea. Let’s go back to last season’s opener. Let’s see what happened that game, let’s see what was written after it, and let’s see if you truly can judge a team after one game.

Fun!

Unless, um, you’re a Colts fan.

Because the Colts opened the 2015 season with a 27-14 loss at Buffalo that began about as you’d think a Colts game would begin: with the Colts falling behind 24-0 before deciding it was time to play.

What was written after that game – harsh as it was – was no overreaction. Almost every bit of it was shown to be true over the course of the season, including commentary on the offensive line in general and the Colts’ most important new players in particular: Andre Johnson, Trent Cole, Frank Gore, Todd Herremans, No. 1 pick Phillip Dorsett.

Before we re-hash that anymore, let’s return to the 2016 Colts, who play Game 2 on Sunday in Denver against Von Miller and the big, bad Broncos. The Colts looked bad this past Sunday against Detroit, right? Started slow. Coached scared. Played not just bad defense, but stupid defense. And didn’t get rolling on offense until the play-calling was taken out of offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski’s hands and given to Andrew Luck.

So what was the reaction to that game, here and nationally? Two words. Or one word. Well, let’s just call it a Cro-Magnon grunt, which reminds me of how the Colts played much of that game, a grunt that sounds like this:

Uh-oh.

Now, did people overreact Sunday night when they pointed out the Colts linebackers aren’t very good and the front four doesn’t look capable of mustering any more pressure than a year ago? Or that the offensive line was fine – and even so, Andrew Luck will have to navigate his fifth consecutive season without a particularly effective running game?

We’ll see, but if you want to know the truth, the only quick takeaway from that game that strikes me as an overreaction was the positive one about the offensive line. Hard to believe it’ll play that well all season, but the line does have two new starters and a new position coach. Maybe things have changed there.

The negatives from that game, though, were predictable. Starting linebackers D’Qwell Jackson, Trent Cole and Robert Mathis are all at least 33, and not getting younger. The unit’s fourth starter, Sio Moore, was acquired last year for a sixth-round draft pick – and he’s not getting more talented.

Running back Frank Gore is 33, and while his final numbers were decent – 14 carries, 59 yards, 4.2 yards per carry – he was effective only after the passing game got rolling. And that didn't start happening until the final 2 minutes of the first half, after Chudzinski was essentially told to have a seat while Luck was directing a no-huddle drive 75 yards in 92 seconds for the Colts’ first touchdown.

In the first half, with Chudzinski and coach Chuck Pagano clinging to the 20th century notion of running to set up the pass, Gore had 17 rushing yards (2.8 per carry). Second half: 42 yards (5.4 per carry). So I suppose there’s hope for the running game yet. But only if Chud pounds sand while the smartest guy in his offensive room, the quarterback, runs the offense.

Another reason we can’t be sure what to make of the Colts is we have no idea what to make of the Detroit Lions. If they go 12-4 this season, well, a 39-34 loss in the final seconds will look a certain way. But if Detroit is 6-10, this loss at home looks another way.

So, back to our cheat sheet. Back to last season, when the Colts opened the season in a 24-0 hole to a Buffalo Bills team that looked unbeatable and played its final 15 games with, gulp, a 7-8 record.

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Cole, with no sacks and one assist in that 2015 opener, finished the season with three sacks. Gore, who averaged 3.9 yards per carry that day in Buffalo, averaged 3.7 yards on the season. The terrible Herremans was benched after playing two games, waived after eight. The invisible Dorsett (three targets, two catches in the 2015 opener) caught just 18 passes in 11 games.

The offensive line that had Luck hit five times, sacked twice and running for his life at Buffalo? It nearly got two quarterbacks killed last season. Andrew Luck made it just seven games. His backup, Matt Hasselbeck, lasted eight.

My point? We have to go back just one year to see you can predict what a season will look like after one game. Everyone got it right last September, including Colts fans who were creeping onto the ledge after the Buffalo game.

Same thing happened after one game this season. Media pounced. Fans shrugged and headed back to the ledge.

On the bright side, none of us are all that smart. Down side?

We’re not stupid, either.

Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter at@GreggDoyelStar or atwww.facebook.com/gregg.doyel.

Colts at Broncos, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS