TIM SWARENS

Swarens: 3 challenges that will remain even if Trump loses

Tim Swarens
tim.swarens@indystar.com

Eighteen days. And then the vote. Eighteen days before we test the promise that this election year’s tortured psychodrama finally will end when the last votes are cast and counted.

Still, I don’t feel the least bit optimistic that the morning after Election Night will deliver lasting relief. Instead, I fear we’ll awake not only with a civic hangover wicked enough to bring “Shooter” Flatch to his knees, but also one that lasts long after the new administration moves into the White House.

Donald Trump’s self-serving warning of a “rigged” election certainly doesn’t strengthen hopes that the nation will start to pull itself together after Nov. 8. Nor does his irresponsible threat of refusing to accept the results in the event of his likely loss.

Yet, it’s not fair or accurate to peg Trump as the only, or even the primary, barrier to Americans finally putting the nastiness of this election cycle behind us. At least three obstacles to unity will remain after Election Day:

1. The economic divide: In his rare good moments, Trump has given voice to the fears of millions of workers that their livelihoods are only one corporate board decision away from vanishing.

Trump was an early proponent of Indy’s Carrier employees and others who poured themselves into their work, helped keep their companies profitable, but still were slammed by news that their jobs would be shipped out of the country.

Beyond job security, there’s a widespread perception that wage growth for working-class Americans continues to languish. Economists actually differ on the magnitude of that challenge and its causes. But the frustrations fueled by that perception won’t evaporate merely because Americans have elected a new president and Congress.

It’s critical for leaders in both parties to respond responsibly to those frustrations in the months ahead. Trumponomics may fade, but the fear that fueled it will linger.

2. The troubled GOP: This was a winnable presidential race for Republicans, but primary voters picked the one candidate most likely to fail against a badly flawed Democratic nominee. Even if Republicans hold the House or the Senate, or somehow both, the repercussions inside the party after a Trump defeat are likely to be severe.

Will Republican establishment types demand a purge of Trumpistas? Or will offers of forgiveness and reconciliation be extended to those who repent of their association with Trump?

If it’s the latter, then Gov. Mike Pence could be in a good position to help lead the Republican reformation. A Bloomberg poll released this week found that likely Republican voters made Pence their top pick to become the new “face of the party” if Trump loses. He outpolled Trump, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and John Kasich.

But if there is a purge, and Pence is seen as too toxic to lead, then Ryan is likely the only Republican leader with the clout to begin a full-bore restoration after Hurricane Donald passes.

These are not simply partisan concerns. Americans have witnessed the ugliness that spills out when one of the two major political parties sinks into a pit of dysfunction. For the sake of thoughtful debate and a check on Democrats’ power, the nation needs a healthy Republican Party to emerge in the months and years after Election Day.

3. The wounded winner: Hillary Clinton appears poised to win this election by a wide margin, but she’s also likely to enter office with millions of Americans still deeply suspicious about her honesty and trustworthiness.

Nothing about this campaign, including the recent Wikileaks revelations, has dispelled those concerns. Clinton has been saddled with a classless opponent who makes everyone around him, including his political opponents, look bad. But she’s also had the benefit of a opponent whose outrageous antics have deflected attention away from her own problems.

At some point after Nov. 8, the media’s obsession with Trump will fade. And Clinton, by virtue of the new job, will face a level of scrutiny that she’s never truly had to endure.

Can she convince at least a portion of the 50 percent (or more) of voters who won’t support her on Election Day that they can trust her to lead honestly and effectively as president? If not, it’s going to be a long four years of harsh attacks and counterattacks, and the countdown clock for the next election will be reset almost immediately.

Contact Swarens at tim.swarens@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter: @tswarens.