COLTS

Are the Colts still the favorite in the AFC South?

Stephen Holder
stephen.holder@indystar.com
Members of the Indianapolis Colts offensive line warm up during practice at The Grove in London on Sept. 30, 2016.

LONDON – The Indianapolis Colts say they never took the AFC South for granted. And no one is suggesting they did.

But there’s something about winning an NFL-record 16 consecutive division games that can make those victories begin to feel a bit routine. Contests against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans had become code for “automatic win” in Indianapolis.

Then came last season.

The Colts barely avoided a dreadful 0-3 start in Tennessee. They lost to Houston at home for the first time in the history of the series. And the Colts were shellacked by the Jaguars. Yes, the Jaguars.

With Sunday’s International Series game at London’s Wembley Stadium against Jacksonville representing the Colts’ first division game of 2016, nothing about it feels routine.

Consider 2016, when the Colts lost their grip on the division for just the fourth time since 2003, one big wake-up call for the Colts.

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“It’s last year, but it’s still in the back of your head,” defensive end Kendall Langford said of the game that snapped their intra-division winning streak. “They dropped 50 on us. Jacksonville dropped 50 on us.”

It’s true. Jacksonville 51, Indianapolis 17. That really happened. And it’s got the Colts’ attention.

“We’re a different team, they’re a different team,” coach Chuck Pagano said of his squad and Jacksonville. “We’re playing at a different venue, all that stuff. But they haven’t forgotten that. And we haven’t, either.”

What’s interesting though, is that the Colts’ focus on their division games comes at a time when the preseason predictions of an intensified AFC South are falling flat. Jacksonville, for instance, remains winless, putting all kinds of heat on coach Gus Bradley after an offseason in which ownership spent millions in free agency. The Titans are 1-2 and averaging a league-worst 14 points per game.

Then there’s Houston, coming off a shutout loss against the New England Patriots and their third-string quarterback and, now, coping with the loss of All-Pro defensive lineman J.J. Watt, placed on injured reserve this week with a back injury.

“He’s a great, great player,” Pagano said. “I know they’re going to miss him. But they have a bunch of great players on that team. The whole division got better. He’s one guy who certainly makes a huge impact. And you certainly have to know where he’s at every single down on the offensive side of the ball because he can certainly wreck a game.”

What Pagano said there was mostly accurate, but you could definitely take issue with his assessment of the division. The facts just don’t back up the rhetoric.

Which is great news for the Colts.

They have a chance to make up major ground in the coming weeks. Sunday, it’s the Jaguars. In two weeks, they travel to Houston (Oct. 16). Then, on Oct. 23, it’s on to Tennessee.

What if the Colts can win two of three? What if they win 'em all? Either scenario could put the Colts in the driver's seat in the AFC South.

And while that’s not a new scenario, here’s another familiar fact: What separates the Colts from the rest of the division is the same thing that has always allowed them to be a cut above: superior quarterbacking.

Once, it was Peyton Manning winning division titles. Now, it’s Andrew Luck who stands, head and shoulders, above the other signal-callers in the division. His absence in 2015, when he missed nine games, was the biggest factor in the team’s 8-8 second-place finish.

Even in a season when Luck has been uneven, at best, he’s still playing better football and has a more proven track record than any quarterback in the division. Brock Osweiler, Houston’s best hope, has three touchdown passes and four interceptions through three weeks. Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles already has six interceptions. Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota completed 46.8 percent of his attempts last weekend.

So it’s no stretch to think of the Colts as the favorite in this division, even with their 1-2 record. Come to think of it, the other teams in the division know it, even if they are reluctant to admit it.

“We’re not the ones people are gunning for, I guess you could say,” left tackle Anthony Castonzo said. “But I still think they are, even though it doesn’t appear that way because of who won it last year (Houston). We still expect everyone’s best in a division game.”

As they should. Now, if the Colts respond in kind, maybe they can continue to dominate this division after all.

Follow IndyStar reporter Stephen Holder on Twitter: @HolderStephen.

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