Could Zika outbreak happen here? IUPUI prof says no

Zika virus, a scourge in Latin America where it has led to thousands of babies being born with birth defects, may wind up not posing as much of a threat to the United States, an IUPUI scientist wrote in a recently published article.

Socioeconomic conditions in this country compared with those in Latin America could prevent a widespread outbreak here, said Max J. Moreno-Madriñán, an assistant professor of environmental health science at the Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health at IUPUI.

He and a co-author attempt to answer the question "Could it happen here?" in a recent issue of the Journal of Medical Entomology.

“I thought it would be interesting to touch on …  what would happen if those diseases came here,” Moreno-Madriñán said.

Environmental conditions here are ripe for Zika to prosper. Yellow fever, for instance, has been seen in history as far north as Boston. The Aedes aegypti mosquito, which spreads yellow fever, Zika and dengue fever can prosper during warmer months.

But the prevalence of air conditioning, window screens and clean water in the United States will likely keep widespread Zika outbreaks at bay, said Moreno-Madriñán.

Seemingly harmless habits in Latin American countries may have contributed to the spread of Zika there, said Moreno-Madriñán, who is originally from Columbia. For instance, because the water supply can be unpredictable, people often store clean, fresh water in jugs, inadvertently creating ideal breeding grounds for the insects. Mosquito control tactics such as spraying may also play a role.

Not to say there won't be any Zika outbreaks in the U.S. Small-scale localized clusters of cases are likely to happen, especially in areas that are warmer and have more people who travel to other countries where Zika is present in higher numbers.

Already, there have been some local outbreaks of Zika, which can be transmitted through sexual contact as well as through a mosquito bite. South Florida has seen more than 250 cases of locally transmitted disease. Brownsville, Texas, recently had six cases.

The vast majority of the more than 4,880 people infected with Zika in the United States, however, contracted it while traveling abroad, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There have been 53 cases of Zika seen in Indiana, all of them acquired elsewhere.

Call IndyStar reporter Shari Rudavsky at (317) 444-6354. Follow her on Twitter: @srudavsky.