Insider: How IU can avoid an opening round Big Ten tournament game

BLOOMINGTON – Purdue enters Tuesday’s rivalry rematch with a Big Ten title on its mind.

Indiana has postseason positioning to worry about.

One more win in the season's final week will give the Boilermakers at least a share of their record 23rd Big Ten title (they are currently tied atop the conference history books with IU). But for the Hoosiers, what happens in the next seven days will determine simply whether they get an extra one off, before beginning Big Ten tournament play.

Indiana currently sits in a four-way tie for 10th in the conference, 6-10 in the league, alongside Ohio State, Penn State and Nebraska. A bottom-four finish would mean entering the conference tournament via one of two Wednesday games, the earliest possible start to the postseason. How might the Hoosiers avoid that? First, a few things to keep in mind:

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>> IU holds head-to-head tiebreakers with Penn State and Illinois, and might yet gain the same with Ohio State.

>> Nebraska holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with Indiana.

>> Several tiebreaker scenarios involving Nebraska are bad for IU, whether head-to-head or round robin (combined records), because of Nebraska's success against other potential bottom-four candidates.

>> Virtually any three-way tie that doesn’t involve Nebraska is good for IU. Even if the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State but finish tied with the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, for example, the round-robin tiebreaker would cut their way.

>> Getting Illinois, 7-9 right now, involved in any scenario would likely also benefit Indiana, as the Hoosiers won the two teams’ only meeting this season.

What would it take to ensure a top-10 finish? Consider three possible scenarios following IU’s final two games, at Purdue on Tuesday and at Ohio State on Saturday:

Win both games

Winning out doesn't guarantee Indiana a Thursday start, but it would be a big boost.

It would guarantee an 8-10 finish in the league, and that IU would finish ahead of Ohio State. Even if Penn State and Nebraska won out, IU would still be in good round-robin position, unless Iowa also finished 8-10, complicating the tiebreaker.

Nebraska is the greatest threat to IU avoiding a Wednesday game, because of the Huskers' win in Bloomington to open conference play. But under most scenarios, winning their last two would land the Hoosiers in the top 10, given the head-to-head meeting with Ohio State and the tiebreaker they hold over Penn State.

Lose both games

This is the most straightforward scenario of all. Because losing out would include a defeat at Ohio State, Indiana would not be able to finish in the league’s top 10. The Hoosiers would be destined for a Wednesday opener. Their opponent would be determined by what happened around them in the Big Ten standings.

Win one, lose one

Finally, we reach what is, predictably, the most fluid possible scenario.

A couple of things are given: First, the Ohio State game is more important for IU than the Purdue game, for tiebreaker purposes. The Buckeyes also have a road game this week at Penn State (Ken Pomeroy casts them a slight underdog), so their road home isn’t exactly smooth. Should Indiana win in Columbus, that would be a strong last step.

Things get dicey, though, when Nebraska and Penn State get thrown in.

Indiana has the tiebreaker over Penn State in a head-to-head situation, thanks to a 2-0 record against the Nittany Lions this year. Nebraska, as aforementioned, enjoys the same advantage over IU.

If the three should all finish ahead of Ohio State, with the same conference record — that would have to be 7-11, under these conditions — the Hoosiers would finish 11th, with Nebraska breaking the tie based on the best round-robin record between the three (2-0) and finishing 10th.

An Ohio State win in State College, coupled with a loss to Indiana, could also be problematic if Nebraska finishes with the same record. Should those three teams all finish 7-11, Nebraska would win the round-robin tiebreaker again, and IU would finish 11th again.

The reality is Indiana’s Big Ten tournament seeding is still subject to a lot of change based on the results of the regular season’s final week.

The one hard-and-fast rule: Wins will always help.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.