Where Indiana lost its population last year

While many parts of Indiana lost population last year, Indianapolis and some other metro counties saw gains.

That's according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Thursday morning. The release contains total population per county in 2016, including births, deaths and moving data.

The data show the state's modest overall growth of 20,285 people, or 0.31 percent, remained stagnant.

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"The last couple years have been the slowest growth years since the late (19)80s," said Matt Kinghorn, demographer with the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University in Bloomington.

That's partially the result of a long-running trend of people moving from the Midwest to the South and Southwest, he said. He noted that Indiana still outpaced its neighboring states.

Kinghorn said it isn't unusual to see migration away from the Midwest — think of retirees seeking warmer weather or young adults heading to jobs or college — but Indiana isn't delivering the kind of "economic magnets" to backfill that population loss.

At the same time, Indiana has seen lower birth rates since the Great Recession, while the state's death rate keeps inching higher as a result of the aging population, he said. That trend should continue over the next 15 to 20 years, Kinghorn said.

Declines statewide

More than half of Indiana's counties — 53 total — experienced population declines last year. And 63 counties had more people move away than move in.

Starting in Ohio County in southeastern Indiana, the declines extend northwest across the state to Lake County, as well as through nearly every county along the state's western border.

"It's a striking image to look at a map," Kinghorn said.

With a loss of 1,803 people, Lake County had the largest numeric decline, leading to a loss of more than 10,000 people since 2010. The decline is particularly dramatic when you compare the numbers to 2000 through 2010, Kinghorn said, when the county averaged 1,000 new residents per year. Many had moved to Lake County given its suburban location to Chicago, but that slowed during the Great Recession, he said.

"It appears that inflow of residents has dried up and hasn't begun to pick up in any serious way," Kinghorn said.

Medium-sized and rural counties saw declines, too, with Perry (-1.84 percent), Pulaski (-1.64 percent), Warren (-1.38 percent), Blackford (-1.12 percent) and Grant (-1.12 percent) experiencing the largest percentage losses.

Indy is doing fine, though

When you look at the larger metro area, Indianapolis is outpacing Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Louisville, Ky.

Kinghorn described Indianapolis' place within a wave of new cities that are generally doing well — cities such as Columbus, Ohio, and Madison, Wis. While cities such as Cleveland and Detroit are tied to an industrial history that's struggling, Indianapolis and these other cities are state capitals with universities and diverse economies, he said.

Still, the growth in Marion County is less than what's been the norm in recent history. Prior to 2013, the county experienced a surge of population growth, Kinghorn said, driven in part by Indy's Downtown apartment boom and less movement out of the city overall. Last year, though, marked the city's lowest annual increase since 2005.

"The surge appears to be tapering off," Kinghorn said.

Marion County added 3,171 people last year, less than half the annual numeric growth of Hamilton County. Marion County grew by 0.34 percent.

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Hamilton County (and the doughnut) is doing even better

The state's five fastest-growing counties are in the doughnut around Indianapolis: Hamilton (2.33 percent), Boone (1.98 percent), Hancock (1.83 percent), Johnson (1.77 percent) and Hendricks (1.61 percent).

A big reason? People are moving from urban to suburban areas again, Kinghorn said,  although he noted the flow to suburbia isn't as strong as it was more than 10 years ago.

While more than 6,000 people moved away from Marion County last year — more than double the next closest county, Lake — more than 9,000 people moved into the doughnut counties.

Hamilton County led the state in both percent growth and numeric growth (7,201 people). The numeric growth was more than double that of Marion County.

That's largely unsurprising, given what we've learned during special censuses in Carmel and Fishers.

Hancock County's growth was noteworthy, too, for growing at a faster clip compared to previous years. From 2011 to 2015, Hancock County averaged annual growth of 433 residents per year, Kinghorn said. The county added 1,325 people last year, the data show.

Other metros see growth, too

While the Indy metro is leading the state's growth, the state's other metro areas are contributing, too.

Kinghorn pointed to the Fort Wayne area, some north central counties and the counties across the Ohio River from Louisville.

"There are a handful of metropolitan areas that are driving all the growth in the state," Kinghorn said.

College counties helped too, Kinghorn said.

Most of the state's international migration came to Tippecanoe (1,716 people) and Monroe (1,019) counties — behind Marion County's 3,033. Those three counties account for more than half of the state's international migration.

Most of that is probably driven by students moving to the college towns of West Lafayette and Bloomington, Kinghorn said.

Call IndyStar reporter Ryan Martin at (317) 444-6294. Follow him on Twitter: @ryanmartin and on Facebook

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