What effect does Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s retirement have on IndyCar?
The hits just keep on coming. First it was Jeff Gordon. Then Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. And on Tuesday, Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the latest NASCAR titan to announce plans to walk away from the sport.
In less than three years, four of NASCAR’s biggest and brightest stars have fallen from the sky.
And the timing couldn’t be worse. Even with Earnhardt in tow the past few years, NASCAR crowds have dwindled along with its television ratings. According to Nielsen, NASCAR viewership has plummeted 45 percent since 2005 -- from around 9 million viewers per race to 4.6 million last year.
In truth, Earnhardt’s announcement could provide a brief stimulus to the reeling series, as fans tune in to catch their final glimpses of the 14-time most popular driver behind the wheel.
But then what?
At first glance it seems NASCAR has more body blows to endure, as many of its remaining stars are nearing retirement age. Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson is 41, as is Kevin Harvick, while Matt Kenseth is 45.
Of course, there are some young faces who could step into a larger spotlight, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski among them. But can any of them fill the massive voids left by the enormously popular Earnhardt, Stewart and Gordon?
Maybe they can. Then again, it's fair to wonder if some fans might turn elsewhere for their racing fix.
At a time when the Verizon IndyCar Series can boast it’s on the rise -- Mark Miles recently told the New York Times TV ratings are up 55 percent in the last three years -- might some NASCAR fans, without their favorite drivers to cheer for, start filling the stands at IndyCar events?
Graham Rahal doesn't think so. The 28-year-old Rahal, one of IndyCar’s most business-savvy young drivers, said while that would be a nice result for his series, it seems highly unlikely.
“I don’t think (NASCAR fans) are going to just jump ship,” said Rahal, who added that the effects from Earnhardt’s retirement might not be as severe as some suggest. “He’s still going to be such a big influence on getting people to Cup races. He’ll be around. Whether he ends up doing broadcasting -- I’m not sure what he’s announced -- but regardless, he’s still going to be a big draw.”
If IndyCar wants to keep growing, Rahal said, it will have to manufacture that growth itself, not cash in another's series' troubles.
IndyCar, to its credit, has been doing just that. Its momentum right now is undeniable. Think about what has happened for the series in the just the past year:
• The 100th Indianapolis 500 drew a sellout crowd, which lifted the local TV blackout for the first time since 1950. And according to Indianapolis Motor Speedway President Doug Boles, this year's 101st running could sneak up on 300,000, which would top the attendance of every race in the 21st century except for 100.
• James Hinchcliffe used a long run on “Dancing with the Stars" to gain national acclaim. His team, Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, told IndyStar that his star turn on the ABC reality series allowed him to gain more than 37,000 followers on Facebook, more than 36,000 followers on Twitter and more than 82,000 followers on Instagram.
• Formula One icon Fernando Alonso garnered international attention with the stunning announcement that he would skip the Monaco Grand Prix to compete in the 500. His surprising addition to the 101st field will bring eyes from all over the world to Indy during May.
Remember, though, IndyCar does not operate in the same stratosphere as NASCAR in terms of TV audience. The open-wheel series attracts only about fifth the TV audience of NASCAR. But with Earnhardt retiring, perhaps a bigger piece of the motor sports pie will become available. And maybe IndyCar, with its current TV deal expiring in 2018, has the momentum to seize it.
Follow IndyStar Motor Sports Insider Jim Ayello on Twitter and Instagram: @jimayello.